[politics] I know, I know. I'm sorry...

"davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com" (davesaddiction) 11/04/2020 at 17:18 • Filed to: None

1

76

Can we all just have a moment of appreciation that Fox News is the only one that has 264 called for Biden already?

Photo: .

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/04/2020 at 17:24

3

I like cars: Jim Spanfeller is one ugly motherfucker > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/04/2020 at 17:24

0

Georgia and PA are still in play IMO. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > I like cars: Jim Spanfeller is one ugly motherfucker 11/04/2020 at 17:26

0

Crazy how many tight races there are this year...

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/04/2020 at 17:26

1

They’ve been pretty pragmatic all the way through... Their decision team has been yelled at a lot for stuff like calling AZ early and they just put MI into the Win category. But they seem to be calling balls and strikes fairly. The other networks still seem to be dissecting tweets more than is healthy.

Cavuto as much as said “Biden’s won” just now.  I’m sure he’ll get no credit for that either.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/04/2020 at 17:27

1

In other news, Tennessee loves Kanye:

These aren’t the final counts, but this is how things looked as of Wednesday afternoon:

Arkansas: 4,040

Colorado: 6,254

Idaho: 3,631

Iowa: 3,202

Kentucky: 6,259

Louisiana: 4,894

Minnesota: 7,789

Mississippi: 3,277

Oklahoma: 5,590

Tennessee: 10,216

Utah: 4,344

Vermont: 1,265

ZHP Sparky, the 5th > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/04/2020 at 17:30

0

Yeah just read about the backstory a bit here in NYTimes, most outlets seem to be trying to play it super safe  -

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/business/media/fox-news-arizona-trump.html

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 11/04/2020 at 17:31

1

Yeah, very impressed with their numbers group (assuming AZ actually falls to Biden), and always impressed with Chris Wallace.

Definitely some schizophrenia between the actual reporters and the talking heads there...

ZHP Sparky, the 5th > I like cars: Jim Spanfeller is one ugly motherfucker 11/04/2020 at 17:31

0

Even then Biden gets to 270 as long as he holds AZ and NV.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > ZHP Sparky, the 5th 11/04/2020 at 17:31

0

Can’t blame them!!

feather-throttle-not-hair > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/04/2020 at 17:32

5

I just can’t understand why anyone would do that.

For Sweden > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/04/2020 at 17:33

0

Delaney would have won

HammerheadFistpunch > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/04/2020 at 17:35

1

So dammed embarrassed by my state. 4,344 votes thrown in the garbage for a laugh.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > feather-throttle-not-hair 11/04/2020 at 17:35

2

None of these states were really in question, but yeah...

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > For Sweden 11/04/2020 at 17:36

0

MoCamino > I like cars: Jim Spanfeller is one ugly motherfucker 11/04/2020 at 17:36

2

The last I saw was that PA and GA both had enough mail-in ballots that hadn’t been counted yet that they could flip blue since the majority of them were from metro areas like Philadelphia . If that happened it would do a lot to solidify Biden’s case that the people have spoken and are tired of Trump’s shenanigans. If Biden only wins by five EC points, though... I’m honestly a bit worried about what kind of revolt there will be in the Very Red States™ .

Tekamul > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/04/2020 at 17:36

1

All eyes on a town full of sinners stranded in the middle of a desert.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > HammerheadFistpunch 11/04/2020 at 17:37

0

Yep - 5,590 in mine.

Mid Engine > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/04/2020 at 17:38

0

I follow the race here    https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/

HammerheadFistpunch > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/04/2020 at 17:39

2

same .4%.  Boo to that man.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Mid Engine 11/04/2020 at 17:42

1

I’ve been bouncing around everywhere. Haven’t really been following Fox, but since they called AZ early, I went over to see what they were showing.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > HammerheadFistpunch 11/04/2020 at 17:43

3

As a person who’s witnessed manic depression in his family, it’s pretty sad watching him live out his illness on the global stage...

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Mid Engine 11/04/2020 at 17:44

0

They may be the only other one at 264 already.

Future next gen S2000 owner > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/04/2020 at 17:45

1

Weirdly enough, Fox has been ahead of all the other places I’ve been tracking. They are calling states much sooner than everyone else.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Future next gen S2000 owner 11/04/2020 at 17:48

1

Not sure if that’s good or bad, but considering that they’re considered “state media” by many on the left, I thought it was interesting.

The last thing I want is for a projection to get reversed this week.

nermal > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/04/2020 at 17:52

1

It’s not over yet. Trump needs the 3 East coast states and either NV or AZ..... Which isn’t outside the realm of possibility. Should know AZ shortly after midnight tonight and NV tomorrow.

PA may take until next week after boxes of Biden ballots show up from China, countered by Trump ballots hand delivered by guys named Ivan. Assuming that those are a wash, it may still be close enough to come down to military ballots which are accepted up to a week late.

The best is yet to come!

WilliamsSW > I like cars: Jim Spanfeller is one ugly motherfucker 11/04/2020 at 17:55

0

They both absolutely are.  

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > nermal 11/04/2020 at 17:55

1

Definitely not over, but NV seems likely for Biden. We’ll see! Enough have called AZ that I think it’s probably no longer in play.

50ford500 > Tekamul 11/04/2020 at 17:58

0

I heard an interesting take on how some think NV will go with Trump because of fears of Biden putting in place a nationwide lockdown causing Vegas even more headaches financially. It seemed like a well reasoned argument 

WilliamsSW > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/04/2020 at 17:58

2

Here’s where I follow it all - the news networks are awful because they have so much dead air to fill, and are terrible at providing context.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/

The Fox News bit on Arizona is very interesting - - supposedly the WH and their editorial peeps are extremely pissed over that call (and NE-2). It almost felt like a reach in an effort to get the President to tone his crap down.

Meanwhile, Nate Silver (who seems to be more conservative on making projections than most others) is saying it’s leaning Biden, but he’s still not ready to call it with hundreds of thousands of votes out. 

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/04/2020 at 18:02

0

Apparently there’s still 600K same-day ballots that hadn’t actually been tabulated?

I can’t attest to that, but that was the report just now.  But somebody’s model could well have slipped.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > WilliamsSW 11/04/2020 at 18:02

0

I’ve been on FiveThirtyEight a ton today, and the last several weeks, but damn did they (and everyone) get a lot of these wrong (again) . So many of these states were so much closer than they were projecting, even after “correcting” after 2016.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 11/04/2020 at 18:05

1

In Arizona? Hadn’t heard anything like that yet.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/04/2020 at 18:07

1

People forget that “Sean Hannity” isn’t actually The Official Fox News Reporting...

I think Wallace, Neil, Bret, Brit are honest journalists.  Have a hard time finding a news team (at least on cable) that are as straight-up.  Chris W was squirming in the chair the other night as they were flipping shit at him for “his tough debate night” wherein he couldn’t keep a rabid badger from attacking everything and anything that moved.  He was very self-effacing about it.  Was endearing.

Future next gen S2000 owner > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/04/2020 at 18:10

0

Barring something happening in a recount, I don’t think it will. They’ve waited almost a full day before calling it. They usually get these things right.

Just Jeepin' > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/04/2020 at 18:13

2

Someone made the point (from experience)  that polling is incredibly difficult these days because no one responds.

WilliamsSW > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/04/2020 at 18:14

2

I think it’s a bit unfair to say 538 was wrong - - they’re doing modeling based on the polls (which they don’t perform themselves). Then they come up with a range of possibilities based on that statistical modeling.

Silver kept - repeatedly - telling people that Trump had a real shot at winning (and did the same in 2016). A lot of people seem to think that ‘90% chance of winning’ means ‘he’ll definitely win’. It absolutely does not. And where we’re at now is well within the fat part of their distribution curve.

Now, it is a fair question to ask why they were off a similar amount in the same direction in both 2016 and 2020. May be random chance (they were off a bit the other way in 2018), but certainly worth investigating.

What I like about 538 is that they provide context - my wife was watching CNN last night and I would have loved to punch Blitzer and King every time they threw out a random “Biden leads Iowa by 8 points” with ZERO context on where the votes came from.  It’s worse than useless.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/04/2020 at 18:17

1

Yeah, AZ. My son is over in Nogales and reported some weirdness (he has a guvmint job) in how the ballots weren’t all being counted as timely as had been the plan.

Fox seems sure AZ is Biden’s, but credible reports out of AZ say they are slogging through a pile of ballots— at least as of a couple of hours ago.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/04/least-400-k-ballots-left-count-arizona-republic-estimates-and-number-certainly-higher/6157997002/

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/04/2020 at 18:21

1

Of course, the big problem now is that a billion dollars of Tech Mogul Money just doesn’t go as far as it used to.

Textured Soy Protein > WilliamsSW 11/04/2020 at 18:22

2

Last night my wife wanted to watch this shit on tv even though we’re on the east coast and she goes to bed early. I’d rather not be talked at incessantly and just wait for the results to come in. We flipped through all the different networks and ended up on PBS because that was the only one attempting to be chill in any way.

Textured Soy Protein > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/04/2020 at 18:22

0

Their “hard news” operation sometimes tries and succeeds to separate itself from the propaganda “opinion hosts.” 

WilliamsSW > Textured Soy Protein 11/04/2020 at 18:26

1

My wife likes CNN, which I’m sick and tired of.  Their crap was unwatchable.  

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Just Jeepin' 11/04/2020 at 18:42

0

Then give us error bars +/- 7%...

Textured Soy Protein > WilliamsSW 11/04/2020 at 18:46

2

The Wolf Blitzer stuff last night was too much manufactured drama for me. I forget the dude's name but whoever was on CNN this morning wasn't so bad. The problem is we're getting wall to wall coverage but there's not nearly enough news so it's just a bunch of talking heads babbling.

gettingoldercarguy > Future next gen S2000 owner 11/04/2020 at 18:47

1

They’re just trying to tell Shep they’re sorry along with asking Chris Wallace to stay.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > WilliamsSW 11/04/2020 at 18:49

1

538 is better than most, but if there is that much uncertainty in the polls (proven at this point), you’ve got to hammer that into everyone’s head. And use different language. Giving Biden a 90 out of 100 probability of winning makes it seem almost inconceivable that Trump could wi n (just like everyone thought Hillary had it in the bag - how many didn’t vote because they thought it was a sure thing?).

Probability “ stacking” makes small errors that repeat  become major unforeseen (by the average viewer) results.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 11/04/2020 at 18:51

1

I really like him. Apple doesn’t fall far from the tree.  Much respect for him giving the last moderator the credit she deserved.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 11/04/2020 at 18:52

1

Thanks for the link. 

Saracen > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/04/2020 at 19:09

2

Giving Biden a 100 out of 100 probability of winning would make a Trump win look inconceivable.

They call it forecasting for a reason. Just like the weather. a %10 chance of rain means it could still rain!

Nate Silver’s modeling is by far the best out there when working with aggregate poll data , and he published several articles highlighting that Trump could still win. And his last article said the margin between a Biden landslide and a nail biter is razor thin.

Saracen > WilliamsSW 11/04/2020 at 19:13

2

I came up with some quick and dirty extrapolation of the final numbers for Nevada, AZ, PA and Georgia.

In NV and AZ I think Biden will actually gain a little bit. In Georgia he will be within spitting distance of winning. I don’t think he wins in PA but will erase most of Trump’s lead.

The key is that the majority of the uncounted votes are absentee ballots in heavily democratic metropolitan areas. It’ll take a while for those to trickle in compared to the Trump heavy rural counties with sparse population.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/04/2020 at 19:16

1

SHE was awesome.  Really talented.

Tekamul > 50ford500 11/04/2020 at 19:26

1

Clark county has been blue so far. I think the real path to recovery is a nation wide mask and contact tracing standard, so numbers can be sufficiently reduced, rather than allowing them to surge,  leaving business owners without an end in sight.

WilliamsSW > Saracen 11/04/2020 at 19:32

0

I think that’s about right. Maaaaybe he gets home in Pennsylvania but that’s a crapshoot.

If you’re right, that’s 270-268.

WilliamsSW > Textured Soy Protein 11/04/2020 at 19:46

0

Exactly. I keep telling my wife that they’re not saying anything of use because there’s no new info.

And I despise manufactured drama, which is what the news networks largely are.  

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Saracen 11/04/2020 at 20:20

0

Yeah, I appreciated those last couple articles from him. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 11/04/2020 at 20:21

1

Cutting the mics for 2 mins helped tremendously, as well. 

nermal > MoCamino 11/04/2020 at 20:24

1

Remember that there are a lot of red areas in blue states, just as there are blue areas in red states. Also, Trump got more votes this time than he did in ‘16!

Doubtful there will be revolts if Biden wins, but there will be if Trump wins.

WilliamsSW > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/04/2020 at 20:26

0

I think 538 does a good job of clarifying that, but I’m also a numbers geek who will read the whole thing amd not just the summary graphic, too.

Where I do think they fall short is on noting correlation between errors.  If Michigan is off by 3 points, there's a likelihood that Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are off in the same direction.  They're not independent from each other.  

415s30 W123TSXWaggoIIIIIIo ( •_•))°) > Just Jeepin' 11/04/2020 at 20:26

0

I’ve never been asked

SmugAardvark > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/04/2020 at 21:20

1

Over the course of last night, I was flipping around multiple channels all evening. CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, and PBS. Unfortunately, I no longer have access to AJE, as that would have definitely been up there as well.

I felt that ABC had the best coverage, MSNBC had the worst. Fox News was quite good. CBS was alright, but felt discombobulated at times, and CNN overhyped everything ( I got tired of hearing John King repeatedly use the same exact lines over and over). PBS, I only watched a little bit of, but it was basically what you would expect a PBS broadcast to be.

My partner and I tried to make a drinking game out of the evening, but we had to modify the rules early on because it was quickly getting out of hand.

Here were our base rules:

-Drink any time someone says “It’s just too early to tell” or “It’s going to be a long night”

-Drink any time someone gets their math wrong.

-Drink any time someone stumbles over their words to the point where they have to start their whole thought over from the beginning.

-Drink any time you see a bowtie.

-Drink any time MSNBC “stans” for Biden or Fox News “stans” for Trump.

In hindsight, we should have just made one rule: Drink until you are no longer physically able to.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/04/2020 at 23:54

1

It’s because the election desk at Fox is probably the only thing not biased. The guy running it knows his shit and is pretty insulated from the pundits.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.chicagotribune.com/entertainment/tv/ct-ent-fox-news-election-analyst-20201019-5f5lcj3sbbfkblbtw5k2bq6lse-story.html%3foutputType=amp

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > Just Jeepin' 11/05/2020 at 01:28

0

People also would prefer to avoid ending up on a hit list with the extreme polarization, politically-motivated violence, and two major parties that are at most a couple steps from setting up reeducation  gulags for nonbelievers.

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/05/2020 at 02:09

0

AZ was likely called too soon. The difference is small enough with so many outstanding ballots to count that there’s a reasonable chance the current lead is an illusion since a 45 -55 split in the remaining ballots would switch it .

Doing the math and considering the patterns , the following are reasonable possibilities :

270 B

279 T

275 T

295 T

Note that T has 5 routes to pass 270 and B has 3. Of Ts 5, 3 require MI, which is why they’re like flies on sh*t there right now.

According to the bellwethers, T is favored by around 8-1 . No matter who wins, long streaks are about to be broken.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > WilliamsSW 11/05/2020 at 09:11

0

I think someone who is good at math and understands statistics can view what they put out with a good understanding of the uncertainty that’s present in all of it, but the average voter who viewed it (on the left anyway) would come away with far too much confidence that a Biden win was nearly a sure thing.

538 is at the mercy of the polls, but when they rank a poll “A+”, they’ve clearly put a high level of confidence in its accuracy.

2016 was a black eye for nearly every political pollster. 2020 is a broken nose. They, and news organizations that put huge stock in them, have a lot of work to do to regain confidence from the voting public.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Eric @ opposite-lock.com 11/05/2020 at 09:20

0

Fox News is sure sticking to their guns. Hopefully that’s not just pride.

Georgia has been the surprise for me - crazy how close it is!

Michigan is decided, is it not?

Current betting odds:

https://www.actionnetwork.com/politics/election-odds-predictions-trump-biden-betting-presidential-race-2020

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 11/05/2020 at 09:21

1

Yeah, I read about him some and watch a couple videos about him. Good stuff.

Chris Wallace is great, too.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > SmugAardvark 11/05/2020 at 09:28

1

LOL

Was MSNBC the same as NBC?

I forget who it was (maybe NBC), but when they zoomed out on their map, they’d show states that weren’t even close to being called as solid blue or red. Just a terrible decision by the graphics department (or whoever)...

Honestly, no one should be reporting any vote counts until there’s at least 50 or 75% of the total results in for the state. It’s just useless information, ...but that’s 24 hour news. You always have to have something “breaking” to keep people staring at the screen.

I am glad, at least, that most places seemed to be more hesitant to call states before they were a sure thing. The last thing we needed this week is for widely reported projections to be reversed.

WilliamsSW > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/05/2020 at 09:38

0

I don’t think that’s necessarily a ‘left’ thing - it’s more of a ‘believing what you want to believe’ thing. If all of this were reversed, it would be the right up in arms - it’s just human nature.

A lot of the problem is that the viewing public has become accustomed to sound bites - no one seems to want nuance, they want black and white, the answer.  Not a range of possibilities.  The world just doesn’t work that way - but the talking heads feed that desire for ‘the answer’.  

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > WilliamsSW 11/05/2020 at 09:59

1

Not saying those on the left think differently, just feel like those on the right this year had more confidence that the polls were wrong all along.

WilliamsSW > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/05/2020 at 10:24

1

Oh, I didn’t think you were saying that. Not believing the polls is the equivalent for the right, really.

I seem to know a lot of ‘ doom and gloom’ types - the left leaning people I know were expecting a polling error, and the right leaners were resigned to a Biden presidency. :) :)

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > WilliamsSW 11/05/2020 at 10:43

1

Good point. I’ll admit that I put too much confidence in the polls, like I did in 2016. I thought Biden was going to walk away with this one somewhat easily. Maybe I’ll learn my lesson next time?

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/05/2020 at 10:49

1

The drop this morning from AZ is the big question. It’s either declared or it’s drawn out at that point.

MI is declared, but lawyers are going nuts due to perceived  shady activities.

WilliamsSW > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/05/2020 at 10:57

0

The takeaway is - vote, because it matters, and the pollsters may be right or wrong.

And even in states (like mine) where the presidential result really is a given, vote because there is a lot of local politics going on that might affect you more than whoever lives in DC the next 4 years.  

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > WilliamsSW 11/05/2020 at 11:05

0

No joke! So many tight races that could’ve fallen either way.

Yes, exactly. Our focus is way too often on the wrong thing.

SmugAardvark > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/05/2020 at 19:40

1

I think NBC used the MSNBC stream for most of it, but they did have some local election coverage as well through their affiliates. However, our local ABC affiliate had very timely updates for our local elections and the national crew did a good job of reporting the major races as well. So we probably watched ABC for at least 30-40% of the night.

To me, the biggest surprise of the night, coverage-wise, was Fox News. Thankfully, they let the actual journalists do the work and mostly kept the pundits off the air. They were also the channel that was projecting winners way earlier than most others, including Arizona for Biden.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > SmugAardvark 11/05/2020 at 19:55

1

Let’s hope they (and the AP) don’t have to flip that one! 

SmugAardvark > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 11/05/2020 at 20:00

1

Fingers crossed!